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Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning August 17th, 2020

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning August 17th, 2020.

Stocks are ignoring the lack of a stimulus package from Congress, but that could change - (Source)

Stocks could hang at record levels but gains may be capped until Congress agrees to a new stimulus package to help the economy and the millions of unemployed Americans.
Stocks were higher in the past week, and the S&P 500 flirted with record levels it set in February.
In the coming week, there are some major retailers reporting earnings, including Walmart, Home Depot and Target, but the season is mostly over and the market is entering a quiet period. There are minutes from the Fed’s last meeting, released Wednesday, and housing data, including starts Tuesday and existing sales Friday.
Investors had been watching efforts by Congress to agree to a new stimulus package, but talks have failed and the Senate has gone on recess. There is a concern that Congress will not be convinced to provide a big enough package when it does get to work again on the next stimulus round because recent economic reports look stronger. July’s retail sales, for example, climbed to a record level and recovered to pre-pandemic levels.
“The juxtaposition of getting more fiscal stimulus and better data has paralyzed us in our tracks … we’ve seen this sideways [market] action,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Alliance. “It feels like we need more action from Congress, and the concern is the longer we wait, the better the data gets and the less impactful the next round of stimulus will be.”
Some technical analysts say the market may pull back around the high, to allow it to consolidate gains before moving higher into the end of the year. The S&P 500 reached an all-time high of 3,393 on Feb. 19.
Hogan said he expects stocks to tread sideways during the dog days of August, but they could begin to react negatively to the election in September. He also said it is important that progress continue against the spread of Covid-19, as the economy continues to reopen.
Peter Boockvar, chief investment strategist at Bleakley Advisory Group, said the market could have a wakeup call at some point that the stimulus package has not been approved.
“I think it will cross over a line where they care,” he said. “I think the market is in suspended animation of believing there will be a magical deal.” Boockvar said he expects a deal ultimately, but the impact is not likely to be as big as the last round of funding.
“What they’re not grasping is any deal, any extension of unemployment benefits, is going to be smaller than it was, and the rate of change should be the most important thing investors focus on,” he said. “Not the binary outcome of whether there’s a deal or no deal. There’s going to be less air going into the balloon.”

It’s the economy

Still, economists expect to see a strong rebound in the third quarter, and are anticipating about about a 20% jump in third-quarter growth. But they also say that could be threatened if Congress does not help with another stimulus package.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, described the July retail sales as a perfect V-shaped recovery, but cautioned it would not last unless more aid gets to individuals and cities and states. Democrats have sought a $3 trillion spending package, and Republicans in the Senate offered a $1 trillion package. They could not reach a compromise, including on a $600 weekly payment to individuals on unemployment which expired July 31.
President Donald Trump has tried to fill the gap with executive orders to provide extra benefits to those on unemployment, but the $300 federal payment and $100 from states may take some time to reach individuals, as the processing varies by state. He has also issued an order instructing the Treasury to temporarily defer collection of payroll taxes from individuals making up to $104,000.
“I think in August and September, there will be a lot of Ws, if there’s not more help here,” said Zandi, referring to an economic recovery that retrenches from a V shape before heading higher again. “It’s clearly perplexing. It may take the stock market to say we’re not going to get what we expect, and sell off and light a fire.”
Zandi said it could come to a situation like 2008, where the stock market sold off sharply before Congress would agree to a program that helped financial companies.
“We need a TARP moment to get these guys to help. Maybe if the claims tick higher and the August employment numbers are soft, given the president is focused on the stock market, that might be what it takes to get them back to the table in earnest,” he said, referring to the Troubled Asset Relief Program that helped rescue banks during the financial crisis.
He ultimately expects a package of about $1.5 trillion to be approved in September.
The lack of funding for state and local governments could result in more layoffs, as they struggle with their current 2021 budgets, Zandi said. Already 1.3 million public sector jobs have been lost since February, and there will be more layoffs and more programs and projects cancelled. The impact will hit contractors and other businesses that provide services to local governments.
“The multipliers on state and local government are among the highest of any form of support, so if you don’t provide it, it’s going to ripple through the economy pretty fast,” he said.
Economists expect to see a softening in consumer spending in August with the more than 28 million Americans on unemployment benefits as of mid-July no longer receiving any supplemental pay.
“The real irony is things are shaping up that September is going to be a bad month, and that’s going to show up in all the data in October,” Zandi said. “They are really taking a chance on this election by not acting.”

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

4 Charts That Will Amaze You

The S&P 500 Index is a few points away from a new all-time high, completing one of the fastest recoveries from a bear market ever. But this will also seal the deal on the shortest bear market ever. Remember, the S&P 500 Index lost 20% from an all-time high in only 16 trading days back in February and March, so it makes sense that this recovery could be one of the fastest ever.
From the lows on March 23, the S&P 500 has now added more than 50%. Many have been calling this a bear market rally for months, while we have been in the camp this is something more. It’s easy to see why this rally is different based on where it stands versus other bear market rallies:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
They say the stock market is the only place where things go on sale, yet everyone runs out of the store screaming. We absolutely saw that back in March and now with stocks near new highs, many have missed this record run. Here we show how stocks have been usually higher a year or two after corrections.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
After a historic drop in March, the S&P 500 has closed higher in April, May, June, and July. This rare event has happened only 11 other times, with stocks gaining the final five months of the year a very impressive 10 times. Only 2018 and the nearly 20% collapse in December saw a loss those final five months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, this bear market will go down as the fastest ever, at just over one month. The recovery back to new highs will be five months if we get there by August 23, making this one of the fastest recoveries ever. Not surprisingly, it usually takes longer for bear markets in a recession to recover; only adding to the impressiveness of this rally.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
“It normally takes 30 months for bear markets during a recession to recover their losses, which makes this recovery all the more amazing,” said LPL Financial Chief Market Strateigst Ryan Detrick.. “Then again, there has been nothing normal about this recession, so maybe we shouldn’t be shocked about yet another record going down in 2020.”

When a Few Basis Points Packs a Punch

US Treasury yields have been on the rise this week with the 10-year yield rising 13 basis points (bps) from 0.56% up to 0.69% after getting as high as 0.72% on Thursday. A 13 bps move higher in interest rates may not seem like a whole lot, but with rates already at such low levels, a small move can have a pretty big impact on the prices of longer-term maturities.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Starting with longer-term US Treasuries, TLT, which measures the performance of maturities greater than 20 years, has declined 3.5% this week. Now, for a growth stock, 3.5% is par for the course, but that kind of move in the Treasury market is no small thing. The latest pullback for TLT also coincides with another failed attempt by the ETF to trade and stay above $170 for more than a day.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The further out the maturity window you go in the fixed income market, the bigger the impact of the move higher in interest rates. The Republic of Austria issued a 100-year bond in 2017, and its movements exemplify the wild moves that small changes in interest rates (from a low base) can have on prices. Just this week, the Austrian 100-year was down over 5%, which is a painful move no matter what type of asset class you are talking about. This week's move, though, was nothing compared to the stomach-churning swings from earlier this year. When Covid was first hitting the fan, the 100-year rallied 57% in the span of less than two months. That kind of move usually occurs over years rather than days, but in less than a third of that time, all those gains disintegrated in a two-and-a-half week span from early to late March. Easy come, easy go. Ironically enough, despite all the big up and down moves in this bond over the last year, as we type this, the bond's price is the same now as it was on this same day last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Retail Sales Rock to New Highs

At the headline level, July’s Retail Sales report disappointed as the reading missed expectations by nearly a full percentage point. Just as soon as the report was released, we saw a number of stories pounce on the disappointment as a sign that the economy was losing steam. Looked at in more detail, though, the July report wasn’t all that bad. While the headline reading rose less than expected (1.2% vs 2.1%), Ex Autos and Ex Autos and Gas, the results were much better than expected. Not only that, but June’s original readings were all revised higher by around a full percentage point.
Besides the fact that this month’s report was better underneath the surface and June’s reading was revised higher, it was also notable as the seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of sales in July hit a new record high. After the last record high back in January, only five months passed until American consumers were back to their pre-Covid spending ways. For the sake of comparison, back during the Financial Crisis, 40 months passed between the original high in Retail Sales in November 2007 and the next record high in April 2011. 5 months versus 40? Never underestimate the power of the US consumer!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While the monthly pace of retail sales is back at all-time highs, the characteristics behind the total level of sales have changed markedly in the post COVID world. In our just released B.I.G. Tips report we looked at these changing dynamics to highlight the groups that have been the biggest winners and losers from the shifts.

100 Days of Gains

Today marked 100 trading days since the Nasdaq 100's March 20th COVID Crash closing low. Below is a chart showing the rolling 100-trading day percentage change of the Nasdaq 100 since 1985. The 59.8% gain over the last 100 trading days ranks as the 3rd strongest run on record. The only two stronger 100-day rallies ended in January 1999 and March 2000.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While the Nasdaq 100 bottomed on Friday, March 20th, the S&P 500 bottomed the following Monday (3/23). This means tomorrow will mark 100 trading days since the S&P 500's COVID Crash closing low. Right now the rolling 100-day percentage change for the S&P 500 sits at +46.7%. But if the S&P manages to trade at current levels tomorrow, the 100-day gain will jump above 50%. It has been 87 years (1933) since we've seen a 100-day gain of more than 50%!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

B.I.G. Tips - New Highs In Sight

Whether you want to look at it from the perspective of closing prices or intraday levels, the S&P 500 is doing what just about everybody thought would be impossible less than five months ago - approaching record highs. Relative to its closing high of 3,386.15, the S&P 500 is just 0.27% lower, while it's within half of a percent from its record intraday high of 3,393.52. Through today, the S&P 500 has gone 120 trading days without a record high, and as shown in the chart below, the current streak is barely even visible when viewed in the perspective of all streaks since 1928. Even if we zoom in on just the last five years, the current streak of 120 trading days only ranks as the fourth-longest streak without a new high.
While the S&P 500's 120-trading day streak without a new high isn't extreme by historical standards, the turnaround off the lows has been extraordinary. In the S&P 500's history, there have been ten prior declines of at least 20% from a record closing high. Of those ten prior periods, the shortest gap between the original record high and the next one was 309 trading days, and the shortest gap between highs that had a pullback of at least 30% was 484 tradings days (or more than four times the current gap of 120 trading days). For all ten streaks without a record high, the median drought was 680 trading days.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Whenever the S&P 500 does take out its 2/19 high, the question is whether the new high represents a breakout where the S&P 500 keeps rallying into evergreen territory, or does it run out of gas after finally reaching a new milestone? To shed some light on this question, we looked at the S&P 500's performance following each prior streak of similar duration without a new high.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending August 14th, 2020

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 8.16.20

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
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Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • NOTABLE TICKERS REMOVED DUE TO STOCKS AUTO MOD
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 8.17.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 8.17.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 8.18.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 8.18.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 8.19.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 8.19.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 8.20.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 8.20.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 8.21.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 8.21.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE)

Walmart Inc. $132.60

Walmart Inc. (WMT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.20 per share on revenue of $134.28 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.29 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.51% with revenue increasing by 2.99%. Short interest has decreased by 12.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.9% above its 200 day moving average of $120.64. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,381 contracts of the $135.00 put expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

NVIDIA Corp. $462.56

NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.95 per share on revenue of $3.65 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 84% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.83 to $2.06 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 65.25% with revenue increasing by 41.53%. The stock has drifted higher by 31.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 57.7% above its 200 day moving average of $293.24. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,787 contracts of the $460.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. $253.97

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:10 AM ET on Thursday, August 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.99 per share on revenue of $21.13 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.11 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 8.74% with revenue increasing by 26.22%. Short interest has increased by 30.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.0% above its 200 day moving average of $211.59. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 7, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,935 contracts of the $300.00 call expiring on Friday, November 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

JD.com, Inc. $62.06

JD.com, Inc. (JD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:50 AM ET on Monday, August 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.38 per share on revenue of $26.98 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.46 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 52.00% with revenue increasing by 23.25%. Short interest has increased by 16.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 24.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 36.9% above its 200 day moving average of $45.34. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,799 contracts of the $62.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Home Depot, Inc. $280.55

Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.71 per share on revenue of $31.67 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 17.03% with revenue increasing by 2.69%. Short interest has decreased by 39.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 22.4% above its 200 day moving average of $229.20. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,323 contracts of the $300.00 call expiring on Friday, August 28, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Lowe's Companies, Inc. $154.34

Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.93 per share on revenue of $21.29 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.97 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 36.28% with revenue increasing by 1.42%. Short interest has decreased by 19.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 31.2% above its 200 day moving average of $117.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 7, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,994 contracts of the $170.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Target Corp. $136.53

Target Corp. (TGT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.56 per share on revenue of $19.30 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.64 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 14.29% with revenue increasing by 4.77%. Short interest has decreased by 36.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 10.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 18.0% above its 200 day moving average of $115.73. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 10, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,479 contracts of the $135.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sea Limited $126.50

Sea Limited (SE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.47 per share on revenue of $1.03 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.36) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 34.29% with revenue increasing by 136.16%. Short interest has decreased by 8.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 91.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 98.1% above its 200 day moving average of $63.87. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,000 contracts of the $110.00 put expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 12.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 16.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Niu Technologies $20.82

Niu Technologies (NIU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 3:00 AM ET on Monday, August 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.07 per share on revenue of $88.07 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.11 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 57% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 30.00% with revenue increasing by 13.97%. Short interest has increased by 18.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 129.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 90.3% above its 200 day moving average of $10.94. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 3.7% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. $41.48

BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. (BJ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Thursday, August 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.57 per share on revenue of $3.64 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.60 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 46.15% with revenue increasing by 8.79%. Short interest has decreased by 3.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 33.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 46.7% above its 200 day moving average of $28.27. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, August 12, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,119 contracts of the $50.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead stocks.
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Your Pre Market Brief for 07/16/2020

Pre Market Brief for Thursday July 16th 2020

You can subscribe to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on The Twitter Link Here . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief in this sub.
Updated as of 4:45 AM EST
-----------------------------------------------
Stock Futures:
Wednesday 07/15/2020 News and Markets Recap:
Thursday July 16th 2020 Economic Calendar (All times are in EST)
(JOBLESS CLAIMS TODAY)
News Heading into Thursday July 16th 2020:
NOTE: I USUALLY (TRY TO) POST MANY OF THE MOST PROMISING, DRAMATIC, OR BAD NEWS OVERNIGHT STORIES THAT ARE LIKELY IMPORTANT TO THE MEMBERS OF THIS SUB AT THE TOP OF THIS LIST. PLEASE DO NOT YOLO THE VARIOUS TICKERS WITHOUT DOING RESEARCH! THE TIME STAMPS ON THESE MAY BE LATER THAN OTHERS ON THE WEB.
Upcoming Earnings:
Commodities:
COVID-19 Stats and News:
Macro Considerations:
Most Recent SEC Filings
Other
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Morning Research and Trading Prep Tool Kit
Other Useful Resources:
The Ultimate Quick Resource For the Amateur Trader.
Subscribe to This Brief and the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on The Twitter Link Here . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily brief in this sub
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Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning August 17th, 2020

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on smallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning August 17th, 2020.

Stocks are ignoring the lack of a stimulus package from Congress, but that could change - (Source)

Stocks could hang at record levels but gains may be capped until Congress agrees to a new stimulus package to help the economy and the millions of unemployed Americans.
Stocks were higher in the past week, and the S&P 500 flirted with record levels it set in February.
In the coming week, there are some major retailers reporting earnings, including Walmart, Home Depot and Target, but the season is mostly over and the market is entering a quiet period. There are minutes from the Fed’s last meeting, released Wednesday, and housing data, including starts Tuesday and existing sales Friday.
Investors had been watching efforts by Congress to agree to a new stimulus package, but talks have failed and the Senate has gone on recess. There is a concern that Congress will not be convinced to provide a big enough package when it does get to work again on the next stimulus round because recent economic reports look stronger. July’s retail sales, for example, climbed to a record level and recovered to pre-pandemic levels.
“The juxtaposition of getting more fiscal stimulus and better data has paralyzed us in our tracks … we’ve seen this sideways [market] action,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Alliance. “It feels like we need more action from Congress, and the concern is the longer we wait, the better the data gets and the less impactful the next round of stimulus will be.”
Some technical analysts say the market may pull back around the high, to allow it to consolidate gains before moving higher into the end of the year. The S&P 500 reached an all-time high of 3,393 on Feb. 19.
Hogan said he expects stocks to tread sideways during the dog days of August, but they could begin to react negatively to the election in September. He also said it is important that progress continue against the spread of Covid-19, as the economy continues to reopen.
Peter Boockvar, chief investment strategist at Bleakley Advisory Group, said the market could have a wakeup call at some point that the stimulus package has not been approved.
“I think it will cross over a line where they care,” he said. “I think the market is in suspended animation of believing there will be a magical deal.” Boockvar said he expects a deal ultimately, but the impact is not likely to be as big as the last round of funding.
“What they’re not grasping is any deal, any extension of unemployment benefits, is going to be smaller than it was, and the rate of change should be the most important thing investors focus on,” he said. “Not the binary outcome of whether there’s a deal or no deal. There’s going to be less air going into the balloon.”

It’s the economy

Still, economists expect to see a strong rebound in the third quarter, and are anticipating about about a 20% jump in third-quarter growth. But they also say that could be threatened if Congress does not help with another stimulus package.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, described the July retail sales as a perfect V-shaped recovery, but cautioned it would not last unless more aid gets to individuals and cities and states. Democrats have sought a $3 trillion spending package, and Republicans in the Senate offered a $1 trillion package. They could not reach a compromise, including on a $600 weekly payment to individuals on unemployment which expired July 31.
President Donald Trump has tried to fill the gap with executive orders to provide extra benefits to those on unemployment, but the $300 federal payment and $100 from states may take some time to reach individuals, as the processing varies by state. He has also issued an order instructing the Treasury to temporarily defer collection of payroll taxes from individuals making up to $104,000.
“I think in August and September, there will be a lot of Ws, if there’s not more help here,” said Zandi, referring to an economic recovery that retrenches from a V shape before heading higher again. “It’s clearly perplexing. It may take the stock market to say we’re not going to get what we expect, and sell off and light a fire.”
Zandi said it could come to a situation like 2008, where the stock market sold off sharply before Congress would agree to a program that helped financial companies.
“We need a TARP moment to get these guys to help. Maybe if the claims tick higher and the August employment numbers are soft, given the president is focused on the stock market, that might be what it takes to get them back to the table in earnest,” he said, referring to the Troubled Asset Relief Program that helped rescue banks during the financial crisis.
He ultimately expects a package of about $1.5 trillion to be approved in September.
The lack of funding for state and local governments could result in more layoffs, as they struggle with their current 2021 budgets, Zandi said. Already 1.3 million public sector jobs have been lost since February, and there will be more layoffs and more programs and projects cancelled. The impact will hit contractors and other businesses that provide services to local governments.
“The multipliers on state and local government are among the highest of any form of support, so if you don’t provide it, it’s going to ripple through the economy pretty fast,” he said.
Economists expect to see a softening in consumer spending in August with the more than 28 million Americans on unemployment benefits as of mid-July no longer receiving any supplemental pay.
“The real irony is things are shaping up that September is going to be a bad month, and that’s going to show up in all the data in October,” Zandi said. “They are really taking a chance on this election by not acting.”

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

4 Charts That Will Amaze You

The S&P 500 Index is a few points away from a new all-time high, completing one of the fastest recoveries from a bear market ever. But this will also seal the deal on the shortest bear market ever. Remember, the S&P 500 Index lost 20% from an all-time high in only 16 trading days back in February and March, so it makes sense that this recovery could be one of the fastest ever.
From the lows on March 23, the S&P 500 has now added more than 50%. Many have been calling this a bear market rally for months, while we have been in the camp this is something more. It’s easy to see why this rally is different based on where it stands versus other bear market rallies:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
They say the stock market is the only place where things go on sale, yet everyone runs out of the store screaming. We absolutely saw that back in March and now with stocks near new highs, many have missed this record run. Here we show how stocks have been usually higher a year or two after corrections.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
After a historic drop in March, the S&P 500 has closed higher in April, May, June, and July. This rare event has happened only 11 other times, with stocks gaining the final five months of the year a very impressive 10 times. Only 2018 and the nearly 20% collapse in December saw a loss those final five months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, this bear market will go down as the fastest ever, at just over one month. The recovery back to new highs will be five months if we get there by August 23, making this one of the fastest recoveries ever. Not surprisingly, it usually takes longer for bear markets in a recession to recover; only adding to the impressiveness of this rally.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
“It normally takes 30 months for bear markets during a recession to recover their losses, which makes this recovery all the more amazing,” said LPL Financial Chief Market Strateigst Ryan Detrick.. “Then again, there has been nothing normal about this recession, so maybe we shouldn’t be shocked about yet another record going down in 2020.”

When a Few Basis Points Packs a Punch

US Treasury yields have been on the rise this week with the 10-year yield rising 13 basis points (bps) from 0.56% up to 0.69% after getting as high as 0.72% on Thursday. A 13 bps move higher in interest rates may not seem like a whole lot, but with rates already at such low levels, a small move can have a pretty big impact on the prices of longer-term maturities.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Starting with longer-term US Treasuries, TLT, which measures the performance of maturities greater than 20 years, has declined 3.5% this week. Now, for a growth stock, 3.5% is par for the course, but that kind of move in the Treasury market is no small thing. The latest pullback for TLT also coincides with another failed attempt by the ETF to trade and stay above $170 for more than a day.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The further out the maturity window you go in the fixed income market, the bigger the impact of the move higher in interest rates. The Republic of Austria issued a 100-year bond in 2017, and its movements exemplify the wild moves that small changes in interest rates (from a low base) can have on prices. Just this week, the Austrian 100-year was down over 5%, which is a painful move no matter what type of asset class you are talking about. This week's move, though, was nothing compared to the stomach-churning swings from earlier this year. When Covid was first hitting the fan, the 100-year rallied 57% in the span of less than two months. That kind of move usually occurs over years rather than days, but in less than a third of that time, all those gains disintegrated in a two-and-a-half week span from early to late March. Easy come, easy go. Ironically enough, despite all the big up and down moves in this bond over the last year, as we type this, the bond's price is the same now as it was on this same day last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Retail Sales Rock to New Highs

At the headline level, July’s Retail Sales report disappointed as the reading missed expectations by nearly a full percentage point. Just as soon as the report was released, we saw a number of stories pounce on the disappointment as a sign that the economy was losing steam. Looked at in more detail, though, the July report wasn’t all that bad. While the headline reading rose less than expected (1.2% vs 2.1%), Ex Autos and Ex Autos and Gas, the results were much better than expected. Not only that, but June’s original readings were all revised higher by around a full percentage point.
Besides the fact that this month’s report was better underneath the surface and June’s reading was revised higher, it was also notable as the seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of sales in July hit a new record high. After the last record high back in January, only five months passed until American consumers were back to their pre-Covid spending ways. For the sake of comparison, back during the Financial Crisis, 40 months passed between the original high in Retail Sales in November 2007 and the next record high in April 2011. 5 months versus 40? Never underestimate the power of the US consumer!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While the monthly pace of retail sales is back at all-time highs, the characteristics behind the total level of sales have changed markedly in the post COVID world. In our just released B.I.G. Tips report we looked at these changing dynamics to highlight the groups that have been the biggest winners and losers from the shifts.

100 Days of Gains

Today marked 100 trading days since the Nasdaq 100's March 20th COVID Crash closing low. Below is a chart showing the rolling 100-trading day percentage change of the Nasdaq 100 since 1985. The 59.8% gain over the last 100 trading days ranks as the 3rd strongest run on record. The only two stronger 100-day rallies ended in January 1999 and March 2000.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While the Nasdaq 100 bottomed on Friday, March 20th, the S&P 500 bottomed the following Monday (3/23). This means tomorrow will mark 100 trading days since the S&P 500's COVID Crash closing low. Right now the rolling 100-day percentage change for the S&P 500 sits at +46.7%. But if the S&P manages to trade at current levels tomorrow, the 100-day gain will jump above 50%. It has been 87 years (1933) since we've seen a 100-day gain of more than 50%!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

B.I.G. Tips - New Highs In Sight

Whether you want to look at it from the perspective of closing prices or intraday levels, the S&P 500 is doing what just about everybody thought would be impossible less than five months ago - approaching record highs. Relative to its closing high of 3,386.15, the S&P 500 is just 0.27% lower, while it's within half of a percent from its record intraday high of 3,393.52. Through today, the S&P 500 has gone 120 trading days without a record high, and as shown in the chart below, the current streak is barely even visible when viewed in the perspective of all streaks since 1928. Even if we zoom in on just the last five years, the current streak of 120 trading days only ranks as the fourth-longest streak without a new high.
While the S&P 500's 120-trading day streak without a new high isn't extreme by historical standards, the turnaround off the lows has been extraordinary. In the S&P 500's history, there have been ten prior declines of at least 20% from a record closing high. Of those ten prior periods, the shortest gap between the original record high and the next one was 309 trading days, and the shortest gap between highs that had a pullback of at least 30% was 484 tradings days (or more than four times the current gap of 120 trading days). For all ten streaks without a record high, the median drought was 680 trading days.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Whenever the S&P 500 does take out its 2/19 high, the question is whether the new high represents a breakout where the S&P 500 keeps rallying into evergreen territory, or does it run out of gas after finally reaching a new milestone? To shed some light on this question, we looked at the S&P 500's performance following each prior streak of similar duration without a new high.

Rocket Reversals

Over the last few days, we've been seeing a moderate rotation in the market as red-hot growth stocks sell-off and investors shift into other areas of the market that have been lagging. To highlight this, the table below highlights 24 companies in the Russell 3,000 with market caps of more than $1 billion that traded at a 52-week high within the last month but are currently down more than 20% from that high. The vast majority of these stocks are names that investors haven't been able to get enough of in 2020 but now appear to have had their fill.
Topping the list of these reversals is Eastman Kodak (KODK). On 7/29, the stock surged to a 52-week high of $60.00 after being awarded a questionable government contract to domestically produce components for prescription drugs. With the SEC and government agency that originally awarded the contract now looking into stock option awards at the company just before it was announced, the stock has pulled back sharply and is now down over 80% from its high less than two weeks ago.
While KODK is more of a unique example, other names on the list are primarily growth or health care stocks that have benefited from the COVID outbreak. However, now that signs suggest the summer wave in the south has crested, investors appear to be taking some profits. Shares of Vaxart (VXRT) hit a high of $17.49 on July 14th but have since lost nearly half of their value and trade back in the single-digits. Additionally, Bloom Energy (BE), 1Life Healthcare (ONEM), and Bioxcel Therapeutics (BTAI) have all lost more than a third of their value.
In terms of market cap, most of the names listed are on the small side, but Tesla (TSLA) is a notable exception as it is now just over 20% below its 52-week high on 7/13. Other relatively large companies on the list include Moderna (MRNA), Citrix Systems (CTXS), Teladoc (TDOC), and Livongo (LVGO). TDOC and LVGO both hit all-time highs last week but after announcing a mostly stock merger last Wednesday, both have lost nearly a quarter of their value.
While all of the stocks listed below have seen sharp pullbacks in the last several days, a little perspective is in order. Of the 24 names listed, the average YTD change even after the declines has been a gain of 219.7% (median: +94.6%). Only two of the stocks shown (New Relic- NEWR and Sonos- SONO) are down YTD, and half of them have at least doubled and in many cases much more.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending August 14th, 2020

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 8.16.20

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $WMT
  • $NVDA
  • $BABA
  • $JD
  • $HD
  • $LOW
  • $TGT
  • $SE
  • $NIU
  • $BJ
  • $AAP
  • $DLPN
  • $TJX
  • $ADI
  • $DE
  • $FL
  • $KSS
  • $DQ
  • $PDD
  • $GDS
  • $ECC
  • $BEST
  • $CTK
  • $EL
  • $VIPS
  • $SNPS
  • $A
  • $ROST
  • $QIWI
  • $LB
  • $LX
  • $AMCR
  • $CMCM
  • $LZB
  • $OPRA
  • $KEYS
  • $CREE
  • $GAN
  • $BZUN
  • $JKHY
  • $FN
  • $MLCO
  • $KC
  • $FUV
  • $SQM
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 8.17.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 8.17.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 8.18.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 8.18.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 8.19.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 8.19.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 8.20.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 8.20.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 8.21.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 8.21.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE)

Walmart Inc. $132.60

Walmart Inc. (WMT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.20 per share on revenue of $134.28 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.29 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.51% with revenue increasing by 2.99%. Short interest has decreased by 12.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.9% above its 200 day moving average of $120.64. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,381 contracts of the $135.00 put expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

NVIDIA Corp. $462.56

NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.95 per share on revenue of $3.65 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 84% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.83 to $2.06 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 65.25% with revenue increasing by 41.53%. The stock has drifted higher by 31.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 57.7% above its 200 day moving average of $293.24. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,787 contracts of the $460.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. $253.97

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:10 AM ET on Thursday, August 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.99 per share on revenue of $21.13 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.11 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 8.74% with revenue increasing by 26.22%. Short interest has increased by 30.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.0% above its 200 day moving average of $211.59. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 7, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,935 contracts of the $300.00 call expiring on Friday, November 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

JD.com, Inc. $62.06

JD.com, Inc. (JD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:50 AM ET on Monday, August 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.38 per share on revenue of $26.98 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.46 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 52.00% with revenue increasing by 23.25%. Short interest has increased by 16.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 24.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 36.9% above its 200 day moving average of $45.34. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,799 contracts of the $62.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Home Depot, Inc. $280.55

Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.71 per share on revenue of $31.67 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 17.03% with revenue increasing by 2.69%. Short interest has decreased by 39.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 22.4% above its 200 day moving average of $229.20. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,323 contracts of the $300.00 call expiring on Friday, August 28, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Lowe's Companies, Inc. $154.34

Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.93 per share on revenue of $21.29 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.97 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 36.28% with revenue increasing by 1.42%. Short interest has decreased by 19.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 31.2% above its 200 day moving average of $117.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 7, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,994 contracts of the $170.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Target Corp. $136.53

Target Corp. (TGT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.56 per share on revenue of $19.30 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.64 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 14.29% with revenue increasing by 4.77%. Short interest has decreased by 36.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 10.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 18.0% above its 200 day moving average of $115.73. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 10, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,479 contracts of the $135.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sea Limited $126.50

Sea Limited (SE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.47 per share on revenue of $1.03 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.36) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 34.29% with revenue increasing by 136.16%. Short interest has decreased by 8.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 91.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 98.1% above its 200 day moving average of $63.87. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,000 contracts of the $110.00 put expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 12.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 16.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Niu Technologies $20.82

Niu Technologies (NIU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 3:00 AM ET on Monday, August 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.07 per share on revenue of $88.07 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.11 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 57% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 30.00% with revenue increasing by 13.97%. Short interest has increased by 18.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 129.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 90.3% above its 200 day moving average of $10.94. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 3.7% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. $41.48

BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. (BJ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Thursday, August 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.57 per share on revenue of $3.64 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.60 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 46.15% with revenue increasing by 8.79%. Short interest has decreased by 3.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 33.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 46.7% above its 200 day moving average of $28.27. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, August 12, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,119 contracts of the $50.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead smallstreetbets.
submitted by bigbear0083 to smallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning August 17th, 2020

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarket. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning August 17th, 2020.

Stocks are ignoring the lack of a stimulus package from Congress, but that could change - (Source)

Stocks could hang at record levels but gains may be capped until Congress agrees to a new stimulus package to help the economy and the millions of unemployed Americans.
Stocks were higher in the past week, and the S&P 500 flirted with record levels it set in February.
In the coming week, there are some major retailers reporting earnings, including Walmart, Home Depot and Target, but the season is mostly over and the market is entering a quiet period. There are minutes from the Fed’s last meeting, released Wednesday, and housing data, including starts Tuesday and existing sales Friday.
Investors had been watching efforts by Congress to agree to a new stimulus package, but talks have failed and the Senate has gone on recess. There is a concern that Congress will not be convinced to provide a big enough package when it does get to work again on the next stimulus round because recent economic reports look stronger. July’s retail sales, for example, climbed to a record level and recovered to pre-pandemic levels.
“The juxtaposition of getting more fiscal stimulus and better data has paralyzed us in our tracks … we’ve seen this sideways [market] action,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Alliance. “It feels like we need more action from Congress, and the concern is the longer we wait, the better the data gets and the less impactful the next round of stimulus will be.”
Some technical analysts say the market may pull back around the high, to allow it to consolidate gains before moving higher into the end of the year. The S&P 500 reached an all-time high of 3,393 on Feb. 19.
Hogan said he expects stocks to tread sideways during the dog days of August, but they could begin to react negatively to the election in September. He also said it is important that progress continue against the spread of Covid-19, as the economy continues to reopen.
Peter Boockvar, chief investment strategist at Bleakley Advisory Group, said the market could have a wakeup call at some point that the stimulus package has not been approved.
“I think it will cross over a line where they care,” he said. “I think the market is in suspended animation of believing there will be a magical deal.” Boockvar said he expects a deal ultimately, but the impact is not likely to be as big as the last round of funding.
“What they’re not grasping is any deal, any extension of unemployment benefits, is going to be smaller than it was, and the rate of change should be the most important thing investors focus on,” he said. “Not the binary outcome of whether there’s a deal or no deal. There’s going to be less air going into the balloon.”

It’s the economy

Still, economists expect to see a strong rebound in the third quarter, and are anticipating about about a 20% jump in third-quarter growth. But they also say that could be threatened if Congress does not help with another stimulus package.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, described the July retail sales as a perfect V-shaped recovery, but cautioned it would not last unless more aid gets to individuals and cities and states. Democrats have sought a $3 trillion spending package, and Republicans in the Senate offered a $1 trillion package. They could not reach a compromise, including on a $600 weekly payment to individuals on unemployment which expired July 31.
President Donald Trump has tried to fill the gap with executive orders to provide extra benefits to those on unemployment, but the $300 federal payment and $100 from states may take some time to reach individuals, as the processing varies by state. He has also issued an order instructing the Treasury to temporarily defer collection of payroll taxes from individuals making up to $104,000.
“I think in August and September, there will be a lot of Ws, if there’s not more help here,” said Zandi, referring to an economic recovery that retrenches from a V shape before heading higher again. “It’s clearly perplexing. It may take the stock market to say we’re not going to get what we expect, and sell off and light a fire.”
Zandi said it could come to a situation like 2008, where the stock market sold off sharply before Congress would agree to a program that helped financial companies.
“We need a TARP moment to get these guys to help. Maybe if the claims tick higher and the August employment numbers are soft, given the president is focused on the stock market, that might be what it takes to get them back to the table in earnest,” he said, referring to the Troubled Asset Relief Program that helped rescue banks during the financial crisis.
He ultimately expects a package of about $1.5 trillion to be approved in September.
The lack of funding for state and local governments could result in more layoffs, as they struggle with their current 2021 budgets, Zandi said. Already 1.3 million public sector jobs have been lost since February, and there will be more layoffs and more programs and projects cancelled. The impact will hit contractors and other businesses that provide services to local governments.
“The multipliers on state and local government are among the highest of any form of support, so if you don’t provide it, it’s going to ripple through the economy pretty fast,” he said.
Economists expect to see a softening in consumer spending in August with the more than 28 million Americans on unemployment benefits as of mid-July no longer receiving any supplemental pay.
“The real irony is things are shaping up that September is going to be a bad month, and that’s going to show up in all the data in October,” Zandi said. “They are really taking a chance on this election by not acting.”

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

4 Charts That Will Amaze You

The S&P 500 Index is a few points away from a new all-time high, completing one of the fastest recoveries from a bear market ever. But this will also seal the deal on the shortest bear market ever. Remember, the S&P 500 Index lost 20% from an all-time high in only 16 trading days back in February and March, so it makes sense that this recovery could be one of the fastest ever.
From the lows on March 23, the S&P 500 has now added more than 50%. Many have been calling this a bear market rally for months, while we have been in the camp this is something more. It’s easy to see why this rally is different based on where it stands versus other bear market rallies:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
They say the stock market is the only place where things go on sale, yet everyone runs out of the store screaming. We absolutely saw that back in March and now with stocks near new highs, many have missed this record run. Here we show how stocks have been usually higher a year or two after corrections.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
After a historic drop in March, the S&P 500 has closed higher in April, May, June, and July. This rare event has happened only 11 other times, with stocks gaining the final five months of the year a very impressive 10 times. Only 2018 and the nearly 20% collapse in December saw a loss those final five months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, this bear market will go down as the fastest ever, at just over one month. The recovery back to new highs will be five months if we get there by August 23, making this one of the fastest recoveries ever. Not surprisingly, it usually takes longer for bear markets in a recession to recover; only adding to the impressiveness of this rally.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
“It normally takes 30 months for bear markets during a recession to recover their losses, which makes this recovery all the more amazing,” said LPL Financial Chief Market Strateigst Ryan Detrick.. “Then again, there has been nothing normal about this recession, so maybe we shouldn’t be shocked about yet another record going down in 2020.”

When a Few Basis Points Packs a Punch

US Treasury yields have been on the rise this week with the 10-year yield rising 13 basis points (bps) from 0.56% up to 0.69% after getting as high as 0.72% on Thursday. A 13 bps move higher in interest rates may not seem like a whole lot, but with rates already at such low levels, a small move can have a pretty big impact on the prices of longer-term maturities.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Starting with longer-term US Treasuries, TLT, which measures the performance of maturities greater than 20 years, has declined 3.5% this week. Now, for a growth stock, 3.5% is par for the course, but that kind of move in the Treasury market is no small thing. The latest pullback for TLT also coincides with another failed attempt by the ETF to trade and stay above $170 for more than a day.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The further out the maturity window you go in the fixed income market, the bigger the impact of the move higher in interest rates. The Republic of Austria issued a 100-year bond in 2017, and its movements exemplify the wild moves that small changes in interest rates (from a low base) can have on prices. Just this week, the Austrian 100-year was down over 5%, which is a painful move no matter what type of asset class you are talking about. This week's move, though, was nothing compared to the stomach-churning swings from earlier this year. When Covid was first hitting the fan, the 100-year rallied 57% in the span of less than two months. That kind of move usually occurs over years rather than days, but in less than a third of that time, all those gains disintegrated in a two-and-a-half week span from early to late March. Easy come, easy go. Ironically enough, despite all the big up and down moves in this bond over the last year, as we type this, the bond's price is the same now as it was on this same day last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Retail Sales Rock to New Highs

At the headline level, July’s Retail Sales report disappointed as the reading missed expectations by nearly a full percentage point. Just as soon as the report was released, we saw a number of stories pounce on the disappointment as a sign that the economy was losing steam. Looked at in more detail, though, the July report wasn’t all that bad. While the headline reading rose less than expected (1.2% vs 2.1%), Ex Autos and Ex Autos and Gas, the results were much better than expected. Not only that, but June’s original readings were all revised higher by around a full percentage point.
Besides the fact that this month’s report was better underneath the surface and June’s reading was revised higher, it was also notable as the seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of sales in July hit a new record high. After the last record high back in January, only five months passed until American consumers were back to their pre-Covid spending ways. For the sake of comparison, back during the Financial Crisis, 40 months passed between the original high in Retail Sales in November 2007 and the next record high in April 2011. 5 months versus 40? Never underestimate the power of the US consumer!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While the monthly pace of retail sales is back at all-time highs, the characteristics behind the total level of sales have changed markedly in the post COVID world. In our just released B.I.G. Tips report we looked at these changing dynamics to highlight the groups that have been the biggest winners and losers from the shifts.

100 Days of Gains

Today marked 100 trading days since the Nasdaq 100's March 20th COVID Crash closing low. Below is a chart showing the rolling 100-trading day percentage change of the Nasdaq 100 since 1985. The 59.8% gain over the last 100 trading days ranks as the 3rd strongest run on record. The only two stronger 100-day rallies ended in January 1999 and March 2000.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While the Nasdaq 100 bottomed on Friday, March 20th, the S&P 500 bottomed the following Monday (3/23). This means tomorrow will mark 100 trading days since the S&P 500's COVID Crash closing low. Right now the rolling 100-day percentage change for the S&P 500 sits at +46.7%. But if the S&P manages to trade at current levels tomorrow, the 100-day gain will jump above 50%. It has been 87 years (1933) since we've seen a 100-day gain of more than 50%!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

B.I.G. Tips - New Highs In Sight

Whether you want to look at it from the perspective of closing prices or intraday levels, the S&P 500 is doing what just about everybody thought would be impossible less than five months ago - approaching record highs. Relative to its closing high of 3,386.15, the S&P 500 is just 0.27% lower, while it's within half of a percent from its record intraday high of 3,393.52. Through today, the S&P 500 has gone 120 trading days without a record high, and as shown in the chart below, the current streak is barely even visible when viewed in the perspective of all streaks since 1928. Even if we zoom in on just the last five years, the current streak of 120 trading days only ranks as the fourth-longest streak without a new high.
While the S&P 500's 120-trading day streak without a new high isn't extreme by historical standards, the turnaround off the lows has been extraordinary. In the S&P 500's history, there have been ten prior declines of at least 20% from a record closing high. Of those ten prior periods, the shortest gap between the original record high and the next one was 309 trading days, and the shortest gap between highs that had a pullback of at least 30% was 484 tradings days (or more than four times the current gap of 120 trading days). For all ten streaks without a record high, the median drought was 680 trading days.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Whenever the S&P 500 does take out its 2/19 high, the question is whether the new high represents a breakout where the S&P 500 keeps rallying into evergreen territory, or does it run out of gas after finally reaching a new milestone? To shed some light on this question, we looked at the S&P 500's performance following each prior streak of similar duration without a new high.

Rocket Reversals

Over the last few days, we've been seeing a moderate rotation in the market as red-hot growth stocks sell-off and investors shift into other areas of the market that have been lagging. To highlight this, the table below highlights 24 companies in the Russell 3,000 with market caps of more than $1 billion that traded at a 52-week high within the last month but are currently down more than 20% from that high. The vast majority of these stocks are names that investors haven't been able to get enough of in 2020 but now appear to have had their fill.
Topping the list of these reversals is Eastman Kodak (KODK). On 7/29, the stock surged to a 52-week high of $60.00 after being awarded a questionable government contract to domestically produce components for prescription drugs. With the SEC and government agency that originally awarded the contract now looking into stock option awards at the company just before it was announced, the stock has pulled back sharply and is now down over 80% from its high less than two weeks ago.
While KODK is more of a unique example, other names on the list are primarily growth or health care stocks that have benefited from the COVID outbreak. However, now that signs suggest the summer wave in the south has crested, investors appear to be taking some profits. Shares of Vaxart (VXRT) hit a high of $17.49 on July 14th but have since lost nearly half of their value and trade back in the single-digits. Additionally, Bloom Energy (BE), 1Life Healthcare (ONEM), and Bioxcel Therapeutics (BTAI) have all lost more than a third of their value.
In terms of market cap, most of the names listed are on the small side, but Tesla (TSLA) is a notable exception as it is now just over 20% below its 52-week high on 7/13. Other relatively large companies on the list include Moderna (MRNA), Citrix Systems (CTXS), Teladoc (TDOC), and Livongo (LVGO). TDOC and LVGO both hit all-time highs last week but after announcing a mostly stock merger last Wednesday, both have lost nearly a quarter of their value.
While all of the stocks listed below have seen sharp pullbacks in the last several days, a little perspective is in order. Of the 24 names listed, the average YTD change even after the declines has been a gain of 219.7% (median: +94.6%). Only two of the stocks shown (New Relic- NEWR and Sonos- SONO) are down YTD, and half of them have at least doubled and in many cases much more.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending August 14th, 2020

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 8.16.20

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $WMT
  • $NVDA
  • $BABA
  • $JD
  • $HD
  • $LOW
  • $TGT
  • $SE
  • $NIU
  • $BJ
  • $AAP
  • $DLPN
  • $TJX
  • $ADI
  • $DE
  • $FL
  • $KSS
  • $DQ
  • $PDD
  • $GDS
  • $ECC
  • $BEST
  • $CTK
  • $EL
  • $VIPS
  • $SNPS
  • $A
  • $ROST
  • $QIWI
  • $LB
  • $LX
  • $AMCR
  • $CMCM
  • $LZB
  • $OPRA
  • $KEYS
  • $CREE
  • $GAN
  • $BZUN
  • $JKHY
  • $FN
  • $MLCO
  • $KC
  • $FUV
  • $SQM
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 8.17.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 8.17.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 8.18.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 8.18.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 8.19.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 8.19.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 8.20.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 8.20.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 8.21.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 8.21.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE)

Walmart Inc. $132.60

Walmart Inc. (WMT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.20 per share on revenue of $134.28 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.29 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.51% with revenue increasing by 2.99%. Short interest has decreased by 12.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.9% above its 200 day moving average of $120.64. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,381 contracts of the $135.00 put expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

NVIDIA Corp. $462.56

NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.95 per share on revenue of $3.65 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 84% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.83 to $2.06 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 65.25% with revenue increasing by 41.53%. The stock has drifted higher by 31.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 57.7% above its 200 day moving average of $293.24. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,787 contracts of the $460.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. $253.97

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:10 AM ET on Thursday, August 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.99 per share on revenue of $21.13 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.11 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 8.74% with revenue increasing by 26.22%. Short interest has increased by 30.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.0% above its 200 day moving average of $211.59. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 7, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,935 contracts of the $300.00 call expiring on Friday, November 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

JD.com, Inc. $62.06

JD.com, Inc. (JD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:50 AM ET on Monday, August 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.38 per share on revenue of $26.98 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.46 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 52.00% with revenue increasing by 23.25%. Short interest has increased by 16.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 24.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 36.9% above its 200 day moving average of $45.34. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,799 contracts of the $62.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Home Depot, Inc. $280.55

Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.71 per share on revenue of $31.67 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 17.03% with revenue increasing by 2.69%. Short interest has decreased by 39.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 22.4% above its 200 day moving average of $229.20. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,323 contracts of the $300.00 call expiring on Friday, August 28, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Lowe's Companies, Inc. $154.34

Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.93 per share on revenue of $21.29 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.97 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 36.28% with revenue increasing by 1.42%. Short interest has decreased by 19.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 31.2% above its 200 day moving average of $117.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 7, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,994 contracts of the $170.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Target Corp. $136.53

Target Corp. (TGT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.56 per share on revenue of $19.30 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.64 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 14.29% with revenue increasing by 4.77%. Short interest has decreased by 36.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 10.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 18.0% above its 200 day moving average of $115.73. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 10, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,479 contracts of the $135.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sea Limited $126.50

Sea Limited (SE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.47 per share on revenue of $1.03 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.36) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 34.29% with revenue increasing by 136.16%. Short interest has decreased by 8.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 91.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 98.1% above its 200 day moving average of $63.87. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,000 contracts of the $110.00 put expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 12.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 16.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Niu Technologies $20.82

Niu Technologies (NIU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 3:00 AM ET on Monday, August 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.07 per share on revenue of $88.07 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.11 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 57% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 30.00% with revenue increasing by 13.97%. Short interest has increased by 18.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 129.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 90.3% above its 200 day moving average of $10.94. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 3.7% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. $41.48

BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. (BJ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Thursday, August 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.57 per share on revenue of $3.64 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.60 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 46.15% with revenue increasing by 8.79%. Short interest has decreased by 3.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 33.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 46.7% above its 200 day moving average of $28.27. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, August 12, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,119 contracts of the $50.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarket.
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarket [link] [comments]

This Crash has Been In The Works for YEARS

This Crash has Been In The Works for YEARS
Sup retards. I know you’re freaking out about your tendies after you completely misunderstood what u/variation-separate said regarding today being, what he thought to be, “the most important trading day of the year.” For an explanation as to what he meant by that, check out his comments on his most recent big 🐻 🌈 star(oil)wars post. That’s not what this is about.
This post should bring you gay bears more comfort than the can of paint you huff every night while you watch your wife get rammed by her hairy-assed boyfriend. So buckle up (as in, your helmets) and break out the Jergens, because we’re about to get our jerks in to these gains the next few weeks and months.
This Crash Has Been In The Making for a Long Time
I know you gaggle of fuckatrons are jacked to the tits in SPY puts and as such, only care about U.S. large cap companies. We all are rather familiar with the success these companies have been benefiting from over the last few years, and the bulls have been jacking their peens to no end over it. Let me peel your eyes off of your RobinHood portfolio and your (at the moment, free) PornHub premium account to look at the performance of global markets for the past decade or so.
EFA, 1M Candles
EFA is an ETF with exposure to securities in Europe, Australia, and the Far East. Some notable names of their 923 holdings include Nestle, Novartis (pharmaceutical company), and Toyota. What’s important about this ETF is that it excludes U.S. and Canada securities. If you want to know more about about it, since I know you’re too incompetent to find the big fucking search bar at the top of your browser, here you go: https://www.etf.com/EFA#overview.
Take a look at the chart, particularly post 2007. It’s essentially been trading sideways ever since, with its most recent peak (marked by the big 🌈 magenta line) being lower than it was in 2007. Speaking of its most recent peak, take a look at the date of that peak at the bottom of the beautiful magenta line. This ETF has been on the decline since January of 2018.
Okay, perhaps that’s a coincidence. Maybe Toyota and Nestle haven’t been sucking enough JPOW BRR printer dick to get their share of that unlimited under-the-table QE.

EEM, 1M Candles
EEM is another ETF that tracks investments of emerging market firms. It’s almost entirely represented by Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea, India, and China. Most notable of its 1225 holdings include Alibaba, Samsung, and Tencent (info here: https://www.etf.com/EEM#efficiency) Again, we see that it has traded sideways since 2007 and has been on the decline since January of 2018. Let's go bigger.

Courtesy of Rodney E. Constable
This is the MSCI world index excluding U.S. holdings. This index captures large and mid cap stocks across 22 of 23 developed market countries. It, too, has traded sideways since 2007 and has been on the decline since 2018. I could go on.
All this is to say, this is a long time coming. As to the why, the short answer is who the fuck knows? The longer answer is likely multi-factorial, resulting from a failure to adequately rectify the fiscal policy shortfalls that caused the ‘08 recession. Lending to those who shouldn’t be lended to in large amounts and being surprised when the whole shebang goes tits up, then slapping a band-aid on the issue by slashing interest rates and creating stimulus packages (sound familiar?) Let’s not even bother reinstating laws like the Glass-Steagall act that many economists believe would have prevented it all to begin with, let’s just fix it long enough to make it someone else’s problem after the boomers die or retire. The failure to eliminate the underlying causes of the ‘08 crash has had the global economy teetering on the re-entry into a full blown recession for years, but no one gives a fuck here in the states because all we care about are the U.S. large caps. Ya know, ‘murica and all that bud-light-drinkin’ shit. Stonks be goin up, all is gud.
Thanks For The History Lesson, but Who Fucking Cares?
I’m glad you asked. Speaking of history, the average length of a bear market is 10 months (1). Although, averages can be inflated a lot by outliers, like the 1929 bear market that lasted 61 months (2). The shortest ever bear market was 3 months in 1990, and was mostly due to central banking policy attempting to wrangle inflation like automod wrangles you autists and the invasion of Saddam Hussein into Kuiwait, causing a spike in oil prices (3). We are hardly 6 weeks into this bear market and, needless to say, these are very different circumstances.
This is not an issue that can be band-aided through stimulus packages and slashed interest rates. All these years of high-risk lending is going to dick everyone down by these cuts in production caused by the beervirus. I sincerely believe that the Fed and the gov’t in general are just delaying the inevitable (and vegafucking my tendies) under the aforementioned retarded boomer logic.
We’re in it for the long haul boys. Diamond hands.
Tl;Dr Learn to read, it’s not that long. It’s fuc and it’s been fuc ever since 2008. SPY $220p 5/15
Sources:
  1. https://www.hartfordfunds.com/dam/en/docs/pub/whitepapers/CCWP045.pdf
  2. https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2020-03-11/a-look-at-what-happens-when-stocks-enter-a-bear-market
  3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_1990s_recession
Credit where credit is due: Third chart and inspiration for this post is from Rodney E. Constable on YouTube. He’s a little dry, but he’s the former VP of an investment firm and seems to know his shit (but does not, at all, understand how to market himself online). Check him out and listen to his shit on 1.5x speed, makes it much more 🐻able.
Edit: The only part of this post geared towards predicting the future is the final part regarding the average length of bear markets. However, since JPOW and TrumpTheCuck are taking unprecedented action, who knows what could happen. I believe really long dated puts are pretty safe here, because I don't think the question is what direction we're headed, but rather how fast. The general sentiment I'm trying to convey is that based on the performance of other markets, this should not be that fucking surprising. Additionally, who knows what international implications this beervirus crash will lead to. '08 ultimately led to the collapse of Greece's economy (source: https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-the-greece-debt-crisis-3305525).
submitted by teezar420 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Asian Market Update 2/9/2020

Asia Markets
Japan (0.01%), Hong Kong +0.03%, China +0.44%
· Synopsis: o Asia equities ended mixed on Tuesday. South Korea led gains, followed by Taiwan and mainland China. Hong Kong fluctuated, Japan unchanged, while Australia logged sharp losses. There were no major catalysts though Caixin PMI received the biggest share of attention overall. Stronger than expected result added to China recovery optimism. Hong Kong markets recovered their opening losess, consolidating throughout the session to close just above the water for the day on turnover that shrank 23.5% DoD to HK$139.1bn. Chinese Automakers BYD (1211) +13.8%, Geely (175) +4.4%, Nexteer (1316) +9.5%, Great Wall (2333) +8.9% surged ahead as data from China's CAAC shows that retail auto sales for the first three weeks of August rose 12% YoY, while sales for the whole month may rise 8% YoY, continuing the growth seen in the mild rebound in July. Meanwhile the sector may have received a sentiment boost from the further meteoric rise in Tesla's share price overnight. Home Appliance & Consumption names Haier (1169) +2.5%, Man Wah (1999) +2.4%, TCL (1070) +7.9%, and Gome (493) +1.8% another bright spot, rising after the Economic Spectator newspaper reported that China will issue further policy guidance to support rural area consumption power. Japanese benchmarks closed flat as gains in growth stocks were offset by declines in value. Sectors were on the weaker side. Other products, wholesale trade, and precision instruments rose sharply. Mining and real estate were the main laggards. Banks fell moderately. Price action was generally positive as the main indexes spent most of the session recouping earlier losses on the back of profit-taking momentum. Main support factors cited were confirmation of Suga' candidacy for LDP presidential election, and firm Caixin PMI readings.
· Macro: o Bloomberg discussed China's leaders next month will lay out their economic strategy that will include a new ambition to ramp up domestic consumption and make more critical technology at home in a bid to insulate the world's second-largest economy from swirling geopolitical tensions. Described as a strategy of 'dual circulation' in recent speeches by President Xi Jinping, the plan is for a more self-reliant domestic economy to serve as China's main growth driver, supplemented by foreign technologies and investment.
o Bloomberg discussed the uneven recovery in China's consumer demand with preference skewed toward luxury handbags, cosmetics and cars. But this shopping enthusiasm is not extending to mass consumption in sporting goods, beer and restaurants. Unable to travel overseas, wealthy Chinese are spending more at retailers, boding well for luxury goods makers which saw double-digit revenue growth in Q2. Bloomberg analyzed June-quarter revenue for over two dozen companies that are market leaders in China across key consumer goods categories. Three pandemic-triggered trends emerged, driven mostly by pent-up desire to spend, focus on healthy lifestyles (dairy firms in particular) or wariness of public spaces (negative for eating out).
o FT discussed how US President Trump has gone silent on the US trade deficit with China, a glaring contrast with his 2016 campaign. Trump took aim at China during the convention over everything from its responsibility for coronavirus to its human rights abuses against Uighurs in Xinjiang. But as the November election grows closer, the president has become conspicuously quiet on trade. US trade deficit in goods with China in 2016 was $347B and only narrowed marginally $345B for 2019. White House trade adviser said Trump tariffs helped significantly reduce the goods deficit. Touted a more favorable comparison of the deficit shrinking 18% from 2018 to 2019. China is on track to miss targets in phase one trade deal. Academics noted Biden has ample opportunity to debate Trump's strategy.
o BOJ Deputy Governor Masazumi Wakatabe reiterated the bank's policy views: Noted powerful monetary easing measures have had positive effects. Corporate financing in Japan under stress, though external funding environment remains accommodative due to policy measures. Japan's economy is still in an extremely severe situation but economic activity has shown signs of a pick-up. While uncertainties remain due to coronavirus, Japan's economy is likely to improve gradually from H2. Will likely take time for economic activity to return to the pre-COVID-19 level. Inflation is expected to be negative for the time being and turn around gradually thereafter, though risks skewed to the downside.
· Company news/stock movers: o Geely (175 HK) may raise as much as 20 billion yuan via a listing on Shanghai’s Star board. The planned listing would make it the first automaker on STAR Market
o Wuxi Bio (2269 HK) Parent Sells 33m shrs at HK$185 (6.7% discount)
o Alibaba (9988 HK) to Buy 12% stake in YTO Expresss (600233.CH) for 6.6b yuan
o Yum China (9987 HK) The retail portion of HKPO is ~6.67x oversubscribed, based on the HK$6.02bn margin loans provided to investors on the 1st day of subscription, HKEJ rpt
o Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) restarts passenger flights to Machester, Perth and Cebu
o Singapore Airlines (SIA SP) budget arm Scoot to increase destinations and frequency as recovery continues according to The Straits Times. The article notes Scoot will recommence flights to Tokyo, Osaka, Palembang, Pekanbaru and Yogyakarta in Sep-20. It's expected by end of Nov-20 SIA Group's passenger capacity will reach ~11% of pre-Covid19 levels
o Sembcorp Industries (SCI SP) conditional agreement to divest its 32% stake in Shenzhen Chiwan Sembawang Engineering for CNY150M
submitted by geologyisthygame to HKstocks [link] [comments]

I know that someone on /r/dataisbeautiful, /r/askmath or something similar to these will figure out how much fuel consumption may be avoided by getting American Policeman off of Bounty Hunt for traffic offenses and back directing traffic; additionally- the problem, square one, is...

...is in the relationship between the people of Western Nations, Primarily, the United States, though, not exclusively, and I mean: the Haute Bourgeoisie down the Proletarian mind you...
...and their own government, and the distortions to reality, ebbing out from great and artificial hardships imposed upon people who are not, necessarily, Calvinist Puritans and yet must live like them and succeed in these endeavors in order to have the survivable, never-mind self-sustainable....though do consider the gulf in question....and I'm trying to spit out, the survivable position to take stock of one's circumstances and the relative circumstances and have some kind of an informed opinion about any of it that's awful prose, but, I think that we know what that means.
Now: The Concept of Commodities Trading, and the 19th Century Apothecary and the informal this-and-that which led to any particular pharmacist having an indigenous topical anesthetic on hand,
....in Connecticut, never-mind London, but, literally, do consider that also...
...and Now, take one quick glance at wallstreetbets, what commodities trading, "means."
It's Oil, it's High Market Cap, Huge Volume, Hugely, artificial, to such a degree that I've got this internal-metaphor-imagery, when I contemplate it where it's this gigantic indoor swimming pool, roof overhead, painted like the sky and the official line is that it's a natural harbor developed into yadda yadda and the oil tankers are shifted around twice an hour going toot-toooooot, toooot-toooooot, but it's totally fucking fake and the whole point is to allow low-margin traders to absorb the price fluctuations in overseas oil by buying and selling the theoretical title to oil in a pipe in Oklahoma 50 times over before the final sale to distributors benefiting down the whole damn traincrash, and this is all so literal you can take a look at the discourse surrounding negative oil price imbroglio in the reddit archives for more info Record-ɥɔʇɐɹɔS-pɹoɔǝɹ-ʎzooɔs-skritchy-Scratch back up,
Whatever official-networks-approved-by-an-Anglo-Saxon-patriarch and unofficial networks of people being exterminated by these same Anglo-Saxon Patriarchs that a topical anaesthetic may have traveled through to reach a Connecticut Pharmacy, never-mind one in London although please do consider that on a more literal level, two things are certain,
One, It was Never Cocaine, Cocaine is an irresponsible propagandistic slur with devastating, ethnicity-exterminating consequences, in fact, so, it isn't Cocaine, or it wasn't; tense-wise, ˙ɔʇǝ 'ɐᴉqɯnloƆ 'nɹǝԀ uᴉ snouǝƃᴉpuᴉ ǝɥʇ ɟo ʇlnɐɟ ǝɥʇ ʇou ǝɹɐ sǝssǝullI punoq-ǝɹnʇlnƆ uɐǝdoɹnƎ-uɹǝʇsǝM ʇɐɥʇ ʇɔɐɟ ǝɥʇ sɐ llǝʍ sɐ 'oslɐ 'ƃuᴉɹǝpᴉsuoɔ ɥʇɹoʍ sᴉ sᴉɥʇ puɐ ʇɥƃᴉɹ ʇǝs ǝɔuo 'ɯsᴉlɐᴉɹǝdɯᴉ ɟo ǝƃɐɯɐp ɔᴉɯouoɔǝ ǝɥʇ ɟo ǝɯos ʇɔǝɹɹoɔ uɐɔ ʇɐɥʇ ǝɔɹǝɯɯoɔ snouǝƃᴉpuᴉ-oʇ-ʇɥƃᴉɐɹʇs ɐ sᴉ sᴉɥʇ 'ʇnoqɐ ʞlɐʇ oʇ ǝsuǝʇ ǝɹnʇnɟ ɐ ʇoƃ ǝʌ,ǝʍ ɟᴉ 'ɥƃnoɥʇ but we probably, in fact, Do Not Have a Future Tense Situation On Our Hands and in fact that's why, we're, here, well and probably like 7 narcs and/ostasi of some sort whoever could be thick enough to read through the discourse and see the dangerous attempt to destabilize an Euthanize us All the Hard Way Jim-Jonesy-Scenario etc. et alia
Two,It was Testable on the Front End Market Place for Purity, Adulterants and that this was such an efficacious, popular, and adult way to handle, the dangers of medicine; or, ˙˙˙˙sᴉ sᴉɥʇ ǝǝɹɟuǝɥsoƃ ʎlloƃ ǝǝǝl-ɥɐƃ ǝɹnʇɔᴉԀ llnℲ ǝɥʇ ɟo uoᴉsɹǝʌqo pǝpuǝʇsᴉp sᴉɥʇ ɥʇᴉʍ ǝɹǝH uoᴉʇɐɹʇsnɹℲ ʎɯ ǝʇɐʇᴉƃoƆ no⅄ op ʎɐʍʎu∀ sƃuᴉɥʇ ɥɔnS ʇnoq∀ ʎɹɹoM oʇ sǝʇɐʇS pǝʇᴉu∩ ǝɥʇ uᴉ uoᴉʇnqᴉɹʇsᴉp ǝuᴉɔᴉpǝɯ ɟo ʞɹoʍʇǝu lɐɯɹoɟuᴉ ǝɥʇ puɐ sǝᴉʞunɾ ʇsuᴉɐƃɐ ɹɐʍ ǝɥʇ ɥʇᴉʍ ʎsnq ooʇ ǝɹ,ǝʍ puɐ ǝᴉʞunɾ ɐ uɹǝɔuoɔ ʇ,usǝop ǝƃuɐɥɔ ǝʇɐɯᴉlɔ os suolǝɟ ɹoɟ sǝʇoʌ ou ɹosɹnɔǝɹd ǝuᴉɯɐʇǝɥdɯɐɥʇǝW puɐ lʎuɐʇuǝɟɹɐƆ ɹoɟ noʎ ɥɔɹɐǝs uɐɔ I ʇɐɥʇ os ɐuᴉƃɐʌ ɹnoʎ uǝdo ʍou sǝᴉʇᴉpoɯɯoɔ ɥʇᴉʍ op oʇ ƃuᴉɥʇʎuɐ uɐǝɯ oʇ 'uɐq ƃnɹp ɐ ɟo ʎǝsooƃ-ǝsool ǝɥʇ ɹǝɟuᴉ plnoʍ looɟ lɐɔᴉuʎɔ ʇɐɥʍ os ʎʇᴉlɐɹoɯ ɹo ɥʇlɐǝɥ ƃuᴉpɹɐƃǝɹ ʇǝƃ ɹǝʌǝ ll,noʎ uoᴉʇɔɐ ʇuǝɯuɹǝʌoƃ ǝuo ɹnoʎ sᴉ sᴉɥʇ puɐ ǝʇoʌ ɹnoʎ pɐɥ noʎ 'sǝuᴉɔᴉpǝɯ ǝsǝɥʇ 'ɯǝɥʇ ɹoɟ ʇunH oʇ pǝǝN ǝq oʇ IqℲ ɹoɟ ǝʇoʌ noʎ pᴉp ʎɥʍ os ʞuᴉɥʇ ʇ,upᴉp noʎ ɟᴉ puɐ oslɐ uᴉs ɐ s,ʇᴉ puɐ ǝq llǝʍ sɐ ʎɐɯ ǝɹǝɥʇ ʎllɐɹǝʇᴉl oʇ ǝsolɔ os ʇnq sʇlɐs ǝuᴉɔᴉpǝɯ uᴉɐʇɹǝɔ uᴉ sǝɥɔʇᴉʍ ʎlǝʌᴉʇɐɹnƃᴉɟ ǝɹɐ ǝɹǝɥʇ puɐ ɥƃᴉɥ noʎ ʇǝƃ llᴉʍ ǝdop 'ǝǝɹƃ∀ llᴉʍ ʎǝuɯoɹ ʇʇᴉW puɐ ssǝlǝɯoɥ ɹɐɔxoq ɐ sɐ 'ɹo ;ʎʇǝᴉɹɐʌ ɔᴉɹʇɐᴉɥɔʎsd lɐᴉɔos-oɹd ǝɥʇ ʎllɐᴉɔǝdsǝ puɐ ɥo 'pǝɹǝʇsᴉuᴉɯpɐ ɥɔɹɐᴉɹʇɐԀ 'ɐɹʇuoɔ ' pǝɹǝʇsᴉuᴉɯpɐ ɟlǝs ǝɥʇ ɟo ǝuᴉɔᴉpǝɯ ƃuᴉpɹɐƃǝɹ uoᴉuᴉdo s,uoɯɹoW ɐ oʇ ǝɹǝɥpɐ oʇ pǝllǝdɯoɔ ʎllɐƃǝl ǝɹɐ ʎǝɥʇ ʇɐɥʇ uɐǝɯ I ɥɔᴉɥʍ ʎq ʎʞɔnl os ǝq plnoɥs ǝuo ɯƃᴉpɐɹɐd ʇuǝɹɹnɔ ǝɥʇ oʇ pǝɹɐdɯoɔ ǝlɔɐɹᴉɯ pǝuɯɐppoƃ ɐ ǝq plnoʍ ɥɔᴉɥʍ ʇᴉsᴉʌ ʎɹǝʌǝ ɥʇᴉʍ sʇuᴉɐS ʎɐp ɹǝʇɐ˥ ɟo ʞooq ɐ noʎ puɐɥ ʎlǝʌᴉʇɐɹnƃᴉɟ oʇ pǝllǝdɯoɔ ʎllɐƃǝl sɐʍ uɐᴉɔᴉsʎɥԀ pᴉɐs ssǝlun ʎɔɐɯɹɐɥd ɐ ɹoɟ ƃuᴉɥʇǝɯos ƃuᴉsɐɥɔɹnd uᴉ suoᴉʇɐpuǝɯɯoɔǝɹ puɐ ǝɔᴉʌpɐ sɹoʇɔop ɐ ɹǝɟǝɹd ʇ,uplnoʍ ʇlnpɐ ƃuᴉʞɔnɟ ʇɐɥʍ
Two, Squared, Diarrhea kills 2,195 children every day—more than AIDS, malaria, and measles combined. Diarrheal diseases account for 1 in 9 child deaths worldwide, making diarrhea the second leading cause of death among children under the age of 5 and this is because the United States, more specifically, Harry Anslinger, and More Overtly A Pogrom against Indigenous and Other Polychronic Individuals More Generally, as well as-also-People-of-Color, which, is fucking remarkable, considering that the other guy tortured Billie Holiday to death and wrote a book about it, and why this, those articles, aren't an information hazard to agents of the FBI DEA and Local-Bank-Branch Fuzz guaranteeing war crimes court and die in prison I do not know but as you can gather I'm a bad Calvinist when it comes to holding my tongue about this sort of behavior and feel free to find out if it works, at any stage of such a proposition, by which I mean Court and Prison and War Crimes for Genocide and Knowingly doing one Richard Nixon, engineered the Unthinkable in Pliny-the-Elder's Day reality of Urban Water supplied to families without reliable access to Paregoric, and real talk: we've all heard of a cytokine storm, now, this is that, it's the body's nervous system trying to kill itself because it's freaking out too hard for a child to survive unless,
A. Paregoric
B.I.V. Fluids
C. Live in First World And Have a First World Water Supply and thus access to both
D. Comfortable with the death of a martyred saint at a conspicuously early age INRI DIISMANES etc et alia
E. Oh and it's a noteworthy expectorant¯\_(ツ)_/¯sometimes people look fine when they need really strong medicine when they've been raised in a Calvinist Lunacy go figure at least we learned something from this experiment neat stuff, I understand that some of you are like, "this is too complex and too off topic it will never work yadda yadda but listen to me: it must be complex, it must be transformative, the Anglo-Saxon Patriarchy does not do this whole Zen-Idiocy Late-Victorian-Child-Idealizer Routine because it's an efficacious method of organizing adults to heroic self-motivated salvation of their society, or, their highest-best-selves more generally, no, 'ʎɐʍʎuɐ ǝɹǝʍ ɹǝʌǝu ʎǝɥʇ SℲℲ ǝɟᴉ˥ uɐqɹ∩ ʇlnpɐ uɐ ɟo ǝɔuɐuɹǝʌoƃ ǝɥʇ uᴉ ǝɯoɔlǝʍ ʇou ǝɹɐ ʎǝɥʇ ɹǝʌᴉɹ ǝɥʇ ʎq oqoH opuɐq ɹo 'uʍoʇ ɟo ǝƃpƎ 'ssǝlǝɯoH ɹɐɔxoq ǝpᴉɔǝp oʇ pǝǝu ʇɐɥʇ op oʇ ƃuᴉllᴉʍ ʇ,uǝɹɐ oɥʍ ǝldoǝd puɐ sʇlnpɐ ǝʞᴉl ʇɐɥʇ ɥʇᴉʍ lɐǝp ɐʇʇoƃ ǝʍ ǝɔɐld ʞɹɐp ɐ sᴉ plɹoʍ ǝɥʇ ɥɐʎ uospuɐɹפ s,ɹǝʞɔnɟɹǝɥʇoW ʇɐɥʇ sᴉ ᴉɾɐH/ᴉɹᴉפ uᴉ xƎ s,ʎǝupoɹ puǝʇǝɹd ʇuǝɯuoɹᴉʌuƎ pǝɔɐldsᴉW ɐ uᴉ ǝpnǝɹɟuǝpuɐɥɔS ǝɯos lǝǝɟ ɐuuɐʍ no⅄ poפ ƃuᴉʞɔnℲ pooפ 'spuɐᴉɹℲ 'spuɐᴉɹℲ 'spuɐᴉɹℲ 'ƃuᴉʇɐɹǝƃɐxǝ ɯ,I ǝɯ llǝʇ puɐ ɹǝʞnɟɹǝɥʇoɯ sᴉɥʇ oʇ uǝʇsᴉl noʎ puɐ 'ɥʇnɹʇ-ǝɟᴉl-lɐǝɹ sᴉ ʇɐɥʇ 'ʎlǝʇɐl ǝɹoɯ 'ǝɯɐɥs oslɐ puɐ pnolɔ sɐƃ uosᴉod ɐ uᴉ ǝᴉp ʎǝɥʇ sɐ ƃuᴉʇɐqɹnʇsɐɯ ʎlpǝɯɐɥsɐ ʎlʍols oʇ ǝldoǝd pǝɯɐɥsɐ ɟo lɐqɐɔ ɐ ǝzᴉuɐƃɹo oʇ sɐ llǝʍ sɐ 'ʎɥʍ sᴉ ʇɐɥʇ 'ɯǝɥʇ ɟo pǝɯɐɥsɐ ǝq oʇ ƃuᴉoƃ sᴉ ǝuoʎɹǝʌǝ uǝɥʇ puɐ ʞɐǝɹɟ ʇɹǝʌɹǝd ƃᴉq ɐ ǝʞᴉl dǝǝp ooʇ punos-ɹo-ʞɔɐɹɔ oʇ ƃuᴉoƃ sᴉ ǝɔᴉoʌ ɹᴉǝɥʇ ǝʞᴉl slǝǝɟ ɯǝɥʇ ɟo ǝuo-ǝlƃuᴉs-ʎɹǝʌǝ ʇɐɥʇ os ǝuop s,ʇᴉ No: Do Greta the good manners of listening to what she's telling you, the Channels Do Not Work, you lobotomize real life down to the level of institutional discourse, you taxonomize it in their terms, into their monochronic, procrustean, absolutely, disqualifying-by-virtue-of-it's-unsurvivable-nature discourse, and it Will Not Change Anything, the nature of their discourse is designed that way on purpose.
Only, Only, by changing the terms of this conflict to reject the horrendous, inhumane and demoralizing asceticism accompanying any argument in favor of the Petro-Dollar, Consumer-Capitalism and, in-point-of-fact, the permanent state of auto-occupation which apparently, and invariably, apparently, accompanies these are you going to find an unexpected route down the mountain pass; the patriarchs of this system have all embraced this asceticism so thoroughly that an instance of decadence on camera can ruin them; I am in favor of decadence, individual, communal, Aesthetic and experiential decadence when that means Ukiyo over decades of opportunity to meet the man who burnt it down at Chilis; I wish that Nogi Marasuke had Killed McNamara, personally, with a fucking knife, just as much as I wish that John Brown had killed Andrew Jackson in such a fashion if-not-more and that's all I'll say about that; nope, that's not true, I'm also going to add that i wrote a short story where Macnamara shows up at a dinner party, plops, immediately, soon as the door is closed, what appears to be a red velvet cake on the carpet and over the course of several hundred words spits out in that raspy-ass voice, it's goose, and, crucially, though much auto-biographical context later, the goose had a prion, and there isn't much time, we've got decisions to make, right now; these people are fucking con-men I'm telling you, fucking con-men in a world where people like Nogi Marasuke once lived and inasmuch as they, Did What They Did Proved that Selfish, Petty, Scammy, Fake-ass Ruinous behavior is a sin and wrong and a choice, the stories of martyrs are so much more important to study if you are not otherwise religious, and I would strongly encourage all of you to take the time and know the stories of men and women who inspire you to courage.
It's the predicate virtue enabling all of the others, and if you've got the courage, then, a complex fight like this, all it takes its patience, and an attitude of certainty, that, well, it's got to happen, so, how we gonna do it?
Do not, under any circumstances, be a Puritan, not if you want this to work; a puritan looks good, on the outside, in the contemporary environment and that means both that they are not prepared, not dressed, for change, and that their rationalism only extends so far as the optics of them self, to the enemy, do I seem like a real-deal environmentalist; not if you're hearing about the scourge of white nationalism, and not thinking, someone needs to tell these (I agree: despicable, people who would fucking kill me if they could) motherfuckers to stop fighting over a dying earth and start demanding that the executives of American and Dutch Oil Companies Die on a Gallows Like Wodin Would Want them to, would he not want them to- that's rhetorical, yes he would, go tell them if you're white enough, literally, Odin the God Of Gallows Wants their necks Strung Up and Until then Racial Strife is Suicide.
It is when it's in the wrong, e.g. white, direction, and in more ways than I see anyone taking any account of; NSFW, what does this mean, more than Not Safe For White Protestant, sexually weird about stuff and cautiously culturally conservative Boss, it makes the presumption that working people may be adults, but that they will invariably work for an FBI Mormon in 1970 and that is not at all an innocuous presumption; to speak like myself, as I am doing here....how many opportunities have I given an aggressively literal, monochronic monoculturalwhite anglo-saxon protestant as such and proud of it individual to delete this post and ban me from reddit; for saying that, alone, attached to an implication that a second look at the C.V. such individuals are wont to brag about may be in order- and my mother's fathers' mother was anglo-saxon but she was from Gothenburg ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ blood quantum is a lie, also, another component to this multi-fronted assault on nature humanity and the enjoyment of life; she's another one, another hero of mine, look,
If you think that commodities markets, especially, low-cap high margin commodities that are not improved by scale, e.g., epicurean amphetamine made of locally grown ephedra is far more appealing than adderall anything pfizer can sell on an open market, the same as untreated local tobacco cigarettes and micro-brews and small-vineyard wines are always better; on an open market, which we do not have, by any stretch of the imagination; let me say this again,
Do Not Be A Puritan this is a Fight Every Liberatarian and Free Market Idealist and White Power Jackass and Every Weird Sex Person and Every Boring Person Should Be On Board with, the fight that makes it radical to be a patriot and demands that a patriot be a radical, so to speak, and if an issue could be back burnered for wwii then both sides of wwii could and should back burner for this, as despicable as one side of it was I'm not afraid of being called out as-being-one-when-I-know-that-I'm-no-Nazi and neither should you: the White Power gangs are horrifically dangerous people to fuck with and they are in the police and if they want to survive the 21st century with their racial incest scenario then, kinda, gotta join forces on this one, and there are no 'sides' when it comes to the survival of the planet, full stop
My Heart tells me that they're isolated and lonely people, and that being comrades with a more attractive and more diverse and more smart crowd is probably enough to convert them which is the only other choice but kill them, and so it is one, considering the other, worth exploring, anyway,
...as bluntly, hopefully, as I can feel it...
...if you do not think this is the same conflict, and that this conflict is the same as was fought and still is being fought against the indigenous population of the united states, than you push them on this subject and watch what they say; you tell them 2,195 children are dying in an humiliating and painful way every day and that only something which gets them, "high," can make their intestines numb enough to hold water, that the poorest communities on earth need accessible, inexpensive paregoric as if that was your prime political issue you see if they push back, say no, not ever, that's impossible- I mean the same, exact same, problematic actors as are involved in the oil industry and plastic pollution and neoliberal apocalypse more generally, those same people who want economies open and children going to schools where everyone knows that some will get sick and that some will die; people like my fucking Governor, Mike Parsons, these same patriarchs will tell you that we can't passively allow 2,195 children an ancient roman medicine because Middle Aged Middle Class Americans will drink that Diarrhea medicine irresponsibly, like it's plainly, obviously, the right answer- it is fucking absurd, and that, this, is or should be proof to you that this is the same fight and it is all related; look up what Mike Parsons said today, for real, I am being absolutely, completely serious.
I want to organize an international project to get it legally sold out of the old courthouse in downtown saint louis; all banned substances, and make Saint Louis the Capital of a New Way, would be ideal, but breaking the embargo with the support of medical professionals from around the world would gut and slay the ascetic legal paradigm causing the end of the world and I think it's the right thing to do and a good strategy to do it; tl;dr, that, the preceding statement; I want roads paved with self-healing paving succulents and a town full of electric model t's for free and our trolleys back deeply sad face these would work too but I'd prefer these or these or these, borderline, Guys:
Lee Gum Ja was right; you know exactly who she is, Lee Gum Ja, Lady Vengeance,what did she teach us; she is, this is where the old gods came from; remember what she taught us?
...she is, this is holiness, these words are fucking wings to me; anyway, that's Euripedes, anyway,
She taught us: everything must be beautiful
We are living in a hideous shadow of what we're capable of, and it's remnants are screaming at us to stop disrespecting ourselves; the Capitalists' numbers don't even make sense anymore and the puritans are fucking insane and to be clear I'm pointing out that both the Facebook's Multi-channel nature and 'double predestination' are described as being an inducer, the induction-of Schizophrenia by the son of the man who named genetics and in the paper where he provided the first concrete evidence that it was a discrete syndrome which can be disambiguated from simply talking funny, and stuff, anyway.
Raise the Bar, all of this is complicated but Luckily, whether or not this struggle is genuinely important, is not, it's simple, and so all of this nuance and complexity is a Weapon, not a vulnerability, never-and-not-in-no-way an insurmountable hurdle; nothing could be farther from one, when the other side is so lazy, and so willfully, deliberately fucking stupid, anyway,
...and f.r. my hometown is a great place to lead the way because it is so fucked up and I'm not just a patriot, I also mean that, like, this guy should be helping Roosevelt High-school) Do a whole knew paradigm by giving, essentially, the elected school board permission to assert itself, especially Natalie she's great; this is a colony, she lives up there and she was briefly viral for her second $5,000 house's craiglist ad but as a friend of hers who isn't trying to be a liability I can tell you she really means it and she's an American Christian I actually very much fuck with anyway; someone Big Deal can allow her make it a modern program, that's how it works and Double Works Since he's Big Deal British-also, and making this world worth-surviving for people like my neighbors is just as important as the other steps, also, I live in af fucking funeral surrounded by 100,000 houses of usher and true horror literally 2 graves one barrel fire and I saw it before I read the headline and I fucking did I did see it and there was a guy warming himself up to it, and, I'm not sure that I could emotionally sustain myself if I knew what life was like in Britain, really, if it's as nice as it sometimes seems like I spent a day weeping in a hotel room when I last went to Chicago because of how nice-day Lincoln Park was with all of the happy people I thought it was fucked up there too but it wasn't, also, no not the band, also, so does Natalie, she lives in the funeral too and that's my point and I don't want it rich I want it free from the fucking samsara of personal-level capitalism we all owe it to the world to at the very least allow one city full of people capitalism will-kill to live outside of it, as a control, don't we, I hope you think so too, really, truly, also
Regarding the Headline:

Yes, Maths and Charts Experts?

Could you kindly put together some graphics and mathematics about, either, the fuel economy variable between a driver-active and driver-passive paradigm, regarding, traffic lights, police directed traffic, etc.?
It occurred to me while sitting in traffic how stupendously inefficient traffic lights are, and how this was certainly preferred by both Traffic Light Manufacturers and Oil Companies when them Mfer's Rolled out, and, Maybe you've missed it, but, Having Police Do Other Stuff is Working Out Rather Poorly, IMHO, other people's too.
...if you've got some other good ideas, or, anything, remember what another hero of mine said,
You must do all the good you can in the present day, e.g., right now?
We're awake, this is the present and we're awake, and in this exact-moment, wherever we find ourselves, whenever you are when you read this, that is the only tense-or-time we'll ever have to change anything in our entire lives; we may, or, may not be conscious in the future, in the past, but if you are right now: better act like it, Calvinists are wrong, the Test that this life is could not be more obvious:
Courage, now, or husk-of-meat-and-it-all-dies-in-you; You must do all the good you can in the present day, and look at this, Doesn't that break your heart?
This is the Low Context, Low Information, Low Brow You're expected to compromise with, in an ounce of historical hindsight; Yes He Was a government minister, in the U.S., that first guy, but, probably, fucking all of them; guessed that, didn't you?
It's my country, now, I would be dead if I wasn't an American.
I wouldn't ever have been, but, now I am an American, too, and I'm not about to die sitting down.
It Breaks Mine, to fucking bits,
Jonathan Phillip Fox
p.s.
You can do a Nelson Blockade on any American City, and most likely any Modern City, by the tactical ditching of-borrowed-from-a-sister-or-brother-or-forgiving uncle cars,
Slow to a stop, three cars deep, the latter two drivers hop out, get in the getaway car ahead of the others and boogie; those cars will be cleared but that's why you have two layers of getaway and ditch cars, which is not apparent until the cars ahead have been forcibly cleared, wait, wait, no it's three, it is three layers, is it more?
Well, at that point, any, and I mean, any-ring-circle highway city has been shut-absolute-the-fuck down because people have ditched-and-walked and only the protesters know which cars belong to property-suicides; see, that's the beauty of it: and think about it, hospitals have helicopters for a number of reasons and surely this is one of them, and sometimes the greater good really is the greater good, look:
This is a wondrous Tactic because the Police will Fuck Up Those Vehicles, they will blow them up, probably, with a bomb squad even though they know they don't have to and they will shoot them and they will beat them but with no protesters physically present they can not hurt people.
They might catch you, and if they catch you, they will fucking beat you and may be they will beat you to death but they can not make you regret bringing your mom or your sister to a peaceful march for the rest of your life by beating the motherfuck out of a car she reported stolen in clean conscience.
She may suspect it was you, but I have a hunch that if this tactic is deployed for an important reason, she will not ask; rhetoric is even more important than people take it for, it is the lifeblood of everything which we do on purpose and Someone Really Needs to Fucking Study the Meter of Modern Proetry like it's probably magic, it is probably magic, but when I say:
Attitude like it is going to happen, so, how is it going to happen?
This is the kind of thing that I mean; ˙lɐǝɹ ɹoɟ ˙sʎnƃ ʇɥƃᴉɟ ǝuo uᴉ llɐ ǝɹ,ǝʍ 'ɹǝɥʇᴉǝ 'ǝslǝ ʎpoqʎuɐ uɐɥʇ W˥q ɥʇᴉʍ op oʇ ǝɹoɯ pɐɥ I ʇɐɥʇ ʎɐs oʇ ƃuᴉoƃ ʇou ɯ,I ʇnq uᴉʇndsɐɹ ƃuᴉʞɔnɟ ɯ,I 'ƃuᴉʎɐs ɯ,I 'uoǝlodɐu ƃuᴉʞɔnɟ ɯ,I 'ʎɐʍʎuɐ ˙ʞɔnɟ sɐ ɥƃnoʇ ǝɹɐ ǝldoǝd llɐ ;ʞɔnɟ sɐ ɥƃnoʇ ǝɹɐ ʎǝɥʇ dlǝɥ ɹoɟ ʞsɐ ʇou op ʎǝɥʇ 'ǝɟᴉl lɐǝɹ uᴉ 'sǝuoɥd ɹᴉǝɥʇ ƃuᴉlloɹɔs ʎlǝʇᴉlod ǝlᴉɥʍ uoᴉʇɔǝɟuᴉ ƃunl ɐ ɯoɹɟ ǝʇɐɔoɟɟns uɐɔ ǝldoǝd :ɹǝqɯǝɯǝɹ ;ǝɔuɐɯɹoɟɹǝd pǝuoᴉɥsɐdɯᴉ ʎlǝʇɐɹnɔɔɐ uɐ ɥʇᴉʍ ɯǝɥʇ ǝpᴉʌoɹd noʎ ɟᴉ ʎluo puɐ noʎ ɹoɟ uᴉɐldxǝ ʇ,uop noʎ ɟᴉ ʎluo ʇnq 'noʎ ɹoɟ suᴉɐldxǝ sʍǝu ǝɥʇ 'ʇᴉ ʇǝƃ -ʎʇᴉuɐɯnɥ ʇsuᴉɐƃɐ ǝɯᴉɹɔ ɐ ǝɹɐ sopɐɔoʌɐ ǝnuᴉʇuoɔ ʎʇsǝʌɐɹʇ ƃuᴉʞɔnɟ sᴉɥʇ ʍollɐ uɐɥʇ ǝᴉp ɹǝɥʇɐɹ plnoʍ I ǝɹɐp noʎ ɟᴉ ǝW ʇsǝɹɹ∀ 'no⅄ ʞɔnℲ 'ON 'ǝʞᴉl 'uoᴉʇɐuɐldxǝ ou ɥʇᴉʍ 'ɹǝpɹnɯ ʎpoolq ǝʞᴉl ƃuᴉɯɐǝɹɔs ɹᴉǝɥʇ puɐ 'ʇsǝq ɹnoʎ 'sɹǝʌǝᴉlǝq ǝnɹʇ ǝldnoɔ ɐ 'ǝɹoʇs ʎɹǝɔoɹƃ ǝlɐɔsdn uɐ uᴉ ʎɐldsᴉp opɐɔoʌɐ ǝɥʇ oʇ ɟlǝsɹnoʎ ƃuᴉuᴉɐɥɔ ʎq s,ʇᴉ 'ou 'ƃuᴉʇʇǝlɟɐǝl ʎq ʇou sᴉ ǝpɐɹʇ sopɐɔoʌ∀ ɟo loɹʇuoƆ lǝʇɹɐƆ ʇnoqɐ ssǝuǝɹɐʍɐ pɐǝɹds oʇ ʎɐʍ ʇsǝq ǝɥʇ 'ʎɐs 'ʇnoqɐ sᴉno˥ ʇuᴉɐS ɟo ɟlɐɥ ploʇ oɥʍ ʎnƃ ǝɥʇ ɯoɹɟ ƃuᴉɯoɔ sᴉ sᴉɥʇ puɐ I spelled impashioned wrong but I am not ashame.
sigh; I really, truly, would be happy to see this go through the gate checks but I am not hopeful
P.P.S.
Didn't edit because it probably needs more work than I can muster a.t.m. and we've got what, five years; it's an ocean of time, but none for delayed-or-deferred first-tries.
submitted by MyGreatGrayRainbow to ExtinctionRebellion [link] [comments]

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